Public research tracker · SE-IREN-AI-CLOUD-001 · v0.2
Which milestones are supported by dated issuer disclosures—and where do contract value, delivery, customer acceptance, ARR, recognized revenue, cash collection, and economic returns remain distinct?
30-second read
The sources support a $9.7bn headline Microsoft contract value, an IREN-authored statement that Horizon 1 was accepted, and $128.8m of FY26 AI Cloud revenue across IREN’s customer base. They do not establish that the headline value became recognized revenue or that it was collected in cash.
This visual explains the evidence separation. The formal D0–D4 rubric remains proposed and is not applied to rows until its definitions and adoption are separately approved.
sha256:b9f5d0f55c95bfd131d7a9388cdf95b17ed164003665db362b7daa1f5687f074Not a recommendation, forecast, rating, certification, or securities analysis. Issuer assertions remain speaker-attributed. SEC hosting is not independent confirmation.
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Every row now shows a pinpoint locator and a documented second reading. A capture hash shows bytes stayed fixed; the reading check tests whether the row matches those bytes and its stated boundary.
StructEvidence calculation · IREN-M001
128.8 / 707.0 × 100 = 18.2%
StructEvidence calculation from rounded issuer-reported figures. It is not a measure of transition completion, profitability, or Microsoft-contract revenue.
Pinpoint: Form 10-K, Item 7, p.115, Results of Operations table · I-S04 · 0001878848-26-000052
Block 1
These rows are supportable only in the source-native, issuer-attributed wording shown. They are not independent customer confirmation.
IREN-R001SUPPORTED AS ATTRIBUTEDBoundary: Historic issuer financial statement amounts. They do not establish future revenue, cash collection, or AI Cloud profitability.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R002SUPPORTED AS ATTRIBUTEDBoundary: An impairment is an accounting charge and is not equivalent to cash expenditure or total conversion cost.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R003SUPPORTED AS ATTRIBUTEDBoundary: The disclosure was furnished by IREN. Headline contract value is not recognized revenue or cash collected.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R004SUPPORTED AS ATTRIBUTEDBoundary: This is issuer-reported acceptance in a furnished exhibit, not a Microsoft-authored acceptance record or independent NVIDIA certification record captured by this tracker.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R005SUPPORTED AS ATTRIBUTEDBoundary: IREN defines ARR from contracted GPU-hour pricing for commissioned GPUs multiplied by 8,760 hours plus storage and ancillaries. ARR is non-GAAP and recognized revenue may be materially lower.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R006SUPPORTED AS ATTRIBUTEDBoundary: An issuer financing disclosure does not by itself establish full project funding, future drawdown, repayment economics, or returns.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
Block 2
“Not established” is a bounded research state, never a claim of non-existence. Every row carries its next observable check.
IREN-R007NOT ESTABLISHEDBoundary: The reviewed acceptance statement is authored by IREN. Missing customer-authored evidence is a gap, not evidence that acceptance did not occur.
Plain language: Not shown in the sources reviewed: the acceptance wording is IREN-authored.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R008NOT ESTABLISHEDBoundary: IREN reported Horizon 2 commissioning and Horizons 3–4 in late-stage construction, targeting Q4 2026 delivery. Its Form 10-K says contractual delivery grace periods extend from mid-Q4 2026 to the beginning of Q2 2027. A target or outer bound is not a completed acceptance event.
Plain language: Not shown in the sources reviewed by the cutoff: completed delivery and acceptance for Horizons 2–4.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R009NOT ESTABLISHEDBoundary: Contracted ARR, operating ARR, recognized revenue, deferred revenue, prepayments, and cash are different measures.
Plain language: Not shown in the sources reviewed: contracted ARR converting dollar-for-dollar into GAAP revenue.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R010NOT ESTABLISHEDBoundary: The reviewed materials disclose contract value, prepayments, deferred revenue, and financing but do not establish collection of the full headline value.
Plain language: Not shown in the sources reviewed: collection of the full $9.7bn headline value in cash.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
IREN-R011NOT ESTABLISHEDBoundary: Historic revenue growth, one reported acceptance event, impairment, financing, and construction targets do not establish completion or full-life economic returns.
Plain language: Not shown in the sources reviewed: a completed transition with positive full-life returns after all costs and capital.
This second pass is not an external endorsement or independent financial, legal, accounting, or customer review.
Verified context
These notes are source-bounded context, not new row-state promotions.
IREN-C001
IREN reported granting NVIDIA a right to invest up to $2.1bn in ordinary shares, subject to delivery of up to 600,000 GPUs and certain regulatory conditions.
Pinpoint: Form 10-K, Item 7, p.109, Recent Developments; Note 24, p.F-50, Investment Rights
Boundary: This is an issuer-reported conditional right linked to GPU supply, not a completed $2.1bn investment. The 10-K says it is accounted for separately from the NVIDIA cloud-services customer contract.
Sources: I-S04 · 0001878848-26-000052
IREN-C002
IREN included Figure AI among recent signings and within its disclosed customer base.
Pinpoint: FY26 Results Exhibit 99.1, p.1, Highlights; July 20, 2026 Exhibit 99.1, opening customer-base paragraph
Boundary: This issuer-attributed customer mention does not identify contract value, deployed capacity, workload, operating outcome, or any relationship to the separate Figure AI × BMW evidence study.
Sources: I-S09 · 0001878848-26-000051 · I-S11 · 0001140361-26-028871
Block 3
A scheduled check does not predict an outcome. Silence does not prove no change.
| ID | Item | Date or window | Current state | What to check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
IREN-W001 | Q1 FY27 results | 2026-11-05 | Confirmed on issuer news index | Changed ARR definition, AI Cloud recognized revenue, and any Horizon 2–4 delivery or acceptance statement. |
IREN-W002 | Horizons 2–4 delivery and acceptance | Q4 2026 target; contractual grace periods extend from mid-Q4 2026 to the beginning of Q2 2027 | Target only — not completion | Form 10-K, Item 7, pp.109–110. Separate construction, commissioning, delivery, issuer-reported acceptance, and customer-authored acceptance. |
IREN-W003 | New 8-K, 10-Q, amendment, or definition change | On filing | Open | Append a review event; never silently rewrite an earlier state. |
Block 4
Event digests chain to the prior event. Corrections must append a supersession; earlier records remain addressable.
IREN-EV-001 INITIAL PUBLIC SAFE SNAPSHOTCreate a bounded release candidate from captured official sources without human approval or publication.
2026-10-27T19:38:39Z · sha256:a669101bb4544c714e6ad82c846194dbaa27b06cc0d3b5612afead4972cdadb2IREN-EV-002 DEFINITION DRIFT RECORDEDThe July 20 release described an ARR target over $4bn with about 85% under contract; the August 27 release described $4bn contracted ARR for 2026 capacity and $1bn operating ARR. Preserve them as different source-native measures until reconciled.
2026-10-27T19:38:39Z · sha256:29c1154030da4be71f3a59d5168da2081d0a68b7a5f4b1eb72e29425c2fe96b5IREN-EV-003 NEXT CHECK CONFIRMEDOfficial IREN investor news index listed Q1 FY27 results for November 5, 2026; direct body download remained HTTP 403.
2026-10-27T19:38:39Z · sha256:9846bd1f2d8852464f047c490310dcf0caff81a6565105cf1e94f58971bedc83IREN-EV-004 OWNER PUBLICATION AUTHORIZEDThe authenticated task owner authorized publication of the exact reviewed candidate and requested a research disclaimer at the bottom of the page. No separate reviewer identities are inferred.
2026-10-27T20:06:55Z · sha256:fb50373f63321964eb0a75076b75d82288a263494c3b245c259c6b07bf227d77IREN-EV-005 EDITORIAL VERIFICATION UPDATEAfter owner-directed review of CC feedback, add a first-screen evidence ladder, pinpoint locators, documented second-pass checks, plain-language absence wording, a traceable 18.2% calculation, remediated SEC-hosted source captures, and bounded context notes. No row evidence state changes; D0-D4 remains proposed and is not applied to rows.
2026-10-27T20:34:45Z · sha256:7ca94dbd85ebe405178457489028dbf17fd099d6bf5506e034bbde2a8fd68d72Source provenance
SEC-hosted exhibits remain issuer-authored. I-S01, I-S06, and I-S07 now point to captured SEC exhibits rather than blocked investor-site pages. Any remaining HTTP 403 is a retrieval limitation, never evidence of absence.
| ID | Document | Dependency | Liability | Access | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-S01 | September 2023 Monthly Investor Update | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | 7bc96a453e01316c… |
| I-S02 | Initial Poolside H100 GPU cloud services agreement (Exhibit 99.1) | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished | Captured | 3b94adee77ecfa11… |
| I-S03 | Poolside H100 GPU cloud services expansion (Exhibit 99.1) | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished | Captured | 252a4b87649cf64d… |
| I-S04 | Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2026 | issuer authored sec hosted | filed | Captured | 5a60f2b7900db295… |
| I-S05 | Microsoft agreement disclosure on Form 8-K | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | 34b1bec30f65483a… |
| I-S06 | Q2 FY26 Results and GPU financing announcement | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | 17a054d4cba68e30… |
| I-S07 | Business Update and Q3 FY26 Results | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | 80a435f99848da25… |
| I-S08 | Horizon 1 delivery and issuer-reported Microsoft acceptance (Exhibit 99.1) | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | 718701c44d8ef05e… |
| I-S09 | FY26 Results release (Exhibit 99.1) | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | 12488ee391990028… |
| I-S10 | IREN to Release Q1 FY27 Results on November 5, 2026 | issuer authored | unfiled | Metadata verified; body retrieval incomplete (HTTP 403) | not captured |
| I-S11 | July 2026 customer contracts and ARR target update (Exhibit 99.1) | issuer authored sec hosted | furnished not filed | Captured | fd4ef1caf35a4963… |
| I-S12 | 2026 Definitive Proxy Statement | issuer authored sec hosted | filed | Captured | c2d7c049e8fa8027… |
Plain-language labels appear here; raw codes remain in the JSON. Assurance, liability, and D0–D4 are experimental disclosure attributes. D0–D4 is not adopted or applied to rows in this release. Cash collection and customer-authored confirmation remain distinct.
Research policies
Only claims supported by the public case record are made here.
Cases are selected for public-interest and evidence-boundary usefulness. Coverage is not an endorsement, recommendation, rating, or a claim of completeness.
No issuer-sponsored scope or issuer payment is recorded for this case. The public record contains no team securities-position attestation, so this page does not claim that positions are absent; any material conflict identified later must be disclosed.
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