{ "artifact_coverage": { "critical_evidence_metadata_only_rate": "0%", "reproducibility_limitation": "LOW" }, "asset": "XLM", "counter_evidence": [ { "counter_evidence_found": [], "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H1", "impact": "Limits confidence but does not create an accusatory finding.", "queries": [ "XLM SDF treasury deployment remains the dominant economic dependency. counter evidence", "XLM governance concentration implementation status current", "XLM source definition change historical contradiction" ], "remaining_uncertainty": "Independent network revenue or usage replacing treasury funding would weaken this.", "search_question": "What evidence would make this false: SDF treasury deployment remains the dominant economic dependency.", "sources_checked": [ "XLM-R1-S1", "XLM-R1-S2", "XLM-R1-S3", "XLM-R1-S4", "XLM-R1-S5" ] }, { "counter_evidence_found": [], "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H2", "impact": "Limits confidence but does not create an accusatory finding.", "queries": [ "XLM Network activity is becoming less dependent on SDF treasury flows. counter evidence", "XLM governance concentration implementation status current", "XLM source definition change historical contradiction" ], "remaining_uncertainty": "Attribution showing usage depends on SDF incentives would weaken this.", "search_question": "What evidence would make this false: Network activity is becoming less dependent on SDF treasury flows.", "sources_checked": [ "XLM-R1-S1", "XLM-R1-S2", "XLM-R1-S3", "XLM-R1-S4", "XLM-R1-S5" ] }, { "counter_evidence_found": [ "Evidence is insufficient to treat the stronger version of this hypothesis as established." ], "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H3", "impact": "Limits confidence but does not create an accusatory finding.", "queries": [ "XLM Payments and RWA adoption dominate the structure more than treasury mechanics. counter evidence", "XLM governance concentration implementation status current", "XLM source definition change historical contradiction" ], "remaining_uncertainty": "Treasury-flow magnitudes remaining material relative to adoption would weaken this.", "search_question": "What evidence would make this false: Payments and RWA adoption dominate the structure more than treasury mechanics.", "sources_checked": [ "XLM-R1-S1", "XLM-R1-S2", "XLM-R1-S3", "XLM-R1-S4", "XLM-R1-S5" ] }, { "counter_evidence_found": [], "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H4", "impact": "Limits confidence but does not create an accusatory finding.", "queries": [ "XLM Validator quorum composition is the primary structural constraint. counter evidence", "XLM governance concentration implementation status current", "XLM source definition change historical contradiction" ], "remaining_uncertainty": "Detailed independent quorum-set concentration data would be needed to resolve this.", "search_question": "What evidence would make this false: Validator quorum composition is the primary structural constraint.", "sources_checked": [ "XLM-R1-S1", "XLM-R1-S2", "XLM-R1-S3", "XLM-R1-S4", "XLM-R1-S5" ] }, { "counter_evidence_found": [], "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H5", "impact": "Limits confidence but does not create an accusatory finding.", "queries": [ "XLM Foundation funding and payment-network mission jointly explain current structure. counter evidence", "XLM governance concentration implementation status current", "XLM source definition change historical contradiction" ], "remaining_uncertainty": "Self-sustaining network activity detached from SDF mandate funding would weaken this.", "search_question": "What evidence would make this false: Foundation funding and payment-network mission jointly explain current structure.", "sources_checked": [ "XLM-R1-S1", "XLM-R1-S2", "XLM-R1-S3", "XLM-R1-S4", "XLM-R1-S5" ] } ], "decision_usefulness": "NOT_ESTABLISHED", "evidence_agreement": "STRONG_AGREEMENT", "evidence_state_final": "TEMPORAL_CHANGE", "evidence_state_primary": "TEMPORAL_CHANGE", "evidence_state_reviewer": "TEMPORAL_CHANGE", "hypotheses": [ { "critical_assumption": "Public source definitions remain applicable during the observation window.", "description": "SDF treasury deployment remains the dominant economic dependency.", "discriminating_evidence_needed": "Independent longitudinal evidence for the specific disputed mechanism.", "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H1", "observed_contradicting_evidence": [], "potential_falsifier": "Independent network revenue or usage replacing treasury funding would weaken this.", "source_dependency": "Official and primary data sources dominate; independence is not inflated.", "status": "VIABLE", "status_reason": "Status derived from observation fit and targeted counter-evidence limits.", "supporting_evidence": [ "XLM-R1-O1", "XLM-R1-O2", "XLM-R1-O3", "XLM-R1-O4" ] }, { "critical_assumption": "Public source definitions remain applicable during the observation window.", "description": "Network activity is becoming less dependent on SDF treasury flows.", "discriminating_evidence_needed": "Independent longitudinal evidence for the specific disputed mechanism.", "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H2", "observed_contradicting_evidence": [], "potential_falsifier": "Attribution showing usage depends on SDF incentives would weaken this.", "source_dependency": "Official and primary data sources dominate; independence is not inflated.", "status": "UNRESOLVED", "status_reason": "Status derived from observation fit and targeted counter-evidence limits.", "supporting_evidence": [ "XLM-R1-O8" ] }, { "critical_assumption": "Public source definitions remain applicable during the observation window.", "description": "Payments and RWA adoption dominate the structure more than treasury mechanics.", "discriminating_evidence_needed": "Independent longitudinal evidence for the specific disputed mechanism.", "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H3", "observed_contradicting_evidence": [], "potential_falsifier": "Treasury-flow magnitudes remaining material relative to adoption would weaken this.", "source_dependency": "Official and primary data sources dominate; independence is not inflated.", "status": "WEAKENED", "status_reason": "Status derived from observation fit and targeted counter-evidence limits.", "supporting_evidence": [ "XLM-R1-O8" ] }, { "critical_assumption": "Public source definitions remain applicable during the observation window.", "description": "Validator quorum composition is the primary structural constraint.", "discriminating_evidence_needed": "Independent longitudinal evidence for the specific disputed mechanism.", "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H4", "observed_contradicting_evidence": [], "potential_falsifier": "Detailed independent quorum-set concentration data would be needed to resolve this.", "source_dependency": "Official and primary data sources dominate; independence is not inflated.", "status": "UNRESOLVED", "status_reason": "Status derived from observation fit and targeted counter-evidence limits.", "supporting_evidence": [ "XLM-R1-O7" ] }, { "critical_assumption": "Public source definitions remain applicable during the observation window.", "description": "Foundation funding and payment-network mission jointly explain current structure.", "discriminating_evidence_needed": "Independent longitudinal evidence for the specific disputed mechanism.", "hypothesis_id": "XLM-R1-H5", "observed_contradicting_evidence": [], "potential_falsifier": "Self-sustaining network activity detached from SDF mandate funding would weaken this.", "source_dependency": "Official and primary data sources dominate; independence is not inflated.", "status": "VIABLE", "status_reason": "Status derived from observation fit and targeted counter-evidence limits.", "supporting_evidence": [ "XLM-R1-O1", "XLM-R1-O4", "XLM-R1-O8" ] } ], "last_reviewed": "2026-09-09", "material_inconsistency": "NO", "method_version": "BATCH01_R1_v1.0", "numerical_reconciliations": [ { "computed_value": "50001786839.9124767 XLM", "formula": "original plus inflation minus burned supply", "inputs": [ "100000000000", "5443902087.3472865", "55442115247.4348098" ], "notes": "Calculation is structural evidence only; no market or investment inference is made.", "reconciliation_id": "XLM-R1-N1", "result": "RECONCILED", "source_id": "XLM-R1-S2" }, { "computed_value": "15832609102.461119 XLM", "formula": "non-circulating gap from total minus circulating", "inputs": [ "50001786839.9124767", "34169177737.4513581" ], "notes": "Calculation is structural evidence only; no market or investment inference is made.", "reconciliation_id": "XLM-R1-N2", "result": "RECONCILED", "source_id": "XLM-R1-S2" }, { "computed_value": "9077145405 XLM across three disclosed mandate buckets", "formula": "selected mandate account subtotal", "inputs": [ "2004236533", "3657737252", "3415171620" ], "notes": "Calculation is structural evidence only; no market or investment inference is made.", "reconciliation_id": "XLM-R1-N3", "result": "RECONCILED", "source_id": "XLM-R1-S1" } ], "observation_window": { "basis": "current public evidence plus dated historical artifacts", "retrieved": "2026-09-09" }, "open_questions": [ "independent replication", "longitudinal durability", "definition stability" ], "publication_status": "R1 RESEARCH SUPPORT", "research_id": "SE.ASSET.XLM.2026.001-R1", "scientific_derivation_support": "PASS", "source_coverage": "PRIMARY_DOMINANT", "structural_agreement": "PARTIAL_AGREEMENT", "structural_state_final": "SDF_TREASURY_DEPENDENT_PAYMENT_NETWORK", "structural_state_primary": "SDF_TREASURY_DEPENDENT_PAYMENT_NETWORK", "structural_state_reviewer": "FOUNDATION_TREASURY_SUPPORTED_PAYMENT_NETWORK", "summary": "R1 finds that XLM is still materially dependent on SDF treasury deployment, while payment/RWA activity is relevant but not independently sufficient to displace that dependency.", "supersession_status": "REFINED", "what_would_change_conclusion": [ "independent contradictory data", "failed arithmetic reconciliation", "material source definition change" ] }